Niels Bohr, the Nobel laureate in Physics and father of the atomic model, is quoted as saying, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future!” This quote serves as a warning of the importance of testing a forecasting model out-of-sample. Cite This Article . By Tim Doggett | June 2, 2014. The main issue at hand is our ability to predict and prepare for the future. But. As quoted in Teaching and Learning Elementary Social Studies (1970) by Arthur K. Ellis, p. 431 (The first volume of this book is 1977. "” — Niels Bohr The monumental uplifts in digital volumes, shifts in customer requirements and broader economic impact would have been (and frankly still […] København] : Arkitektens forlag, 1948- . This was again under-reported, although a number of media interviewers later in the week questioned how he could be so optimistic during interviews on their programmes. Van Holsbeke C(1). The QI email address is on the About page here. Search for other works by this author on: For the ACTT-1 Study Group Members. (Verified on paper), 1962 Spring, The Kenyon Review, Volume 24, Number 2, “Almost in the Family: IV. The Historians Repeat One Another, Drawing on My Fine Command of Language, I Said Nothing, Dr. Mardy's Dictionary of Metaphorical Quotations. Free Online Library: Antimicrobial drug resistance: "prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (1). Others think it came from the other side of the Atlantic. In September 1975 the mathematician Mark Kac employed the quip again. "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." (Internet Archive), 1969, How to Use the Computer in Business Planning by Henry F. Lande, Section: The Purpose of This Book, Quote Page ix, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. Many thanks to Egil Gersov of Åbo Akademis bibliotek for locating the saying in “Farvel Og Tak” and creating scans. The regulation of false information on social media platforms is something that needs to be urgently addressed. Update History: On January 5, 2021 instances of “Neils” were changed to “Niels”. “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future!” - Niels Bohr, Nobel laureate Physicist “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times” - Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities. In 1988 an article in the journal “The Hastings Center Report” assigned the saying to Nostradamus who was well-known for his prophecies: 19. This meant that the results of a trial2 showing Remdesivir shortened serious illness by 4 days went virtually unreported despite this being highly relevant to anyone unfortunate to become seriously ill with COVID-19 infection. Especially when coupled to a global vision of education grounded in constraining what the mind believes and … The two can hardly be seen as unconnected. .Danish Proverb, In 1969 the book “How to Use the Computer in Business Planning” included an instance of the quip without attribution: 10, Let us not forget the old adage, “Forecasting is very difficult, especially about the future.”, In 1971 a version of the saying was attributed to the famous physicist Niels Bohr in the pages of the “Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists”. View Forecasting.ppt from STATISTIC 3003 at GLA University. This post was originally published here. In mid-July, the world has surpassed past 250 000 daily cases. Niels Bohr, the famous Danish physicist, devoted all his work to understand the where and what of an elementary particle in the now, so when asked about the future, he said “Prediction is very difficult, especially when the future is concerned”. Recommend to friends. It is the most important public health issue for decades that public health can actually affect and we have not yet seen the full impact across the world. Anonymous? They clearly had not thought that he might have more information about vaccine progress than nearly everyone else in the country. Boldface added to excerpts by QI: 1. ADDENDUM: A kind person (mentioned in the acknowledgement) helped QI verify the 1948 citation. “"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future. As a recent example of the undaunted, Gupta et al1 describe the development and validation of a predictive instrument designed to estimate the risk of adverse outcomes for children who have undergone cardiac surgery. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000000795. Hurricane Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially if It's About the Future. Posted Nov 02, 2010 Det er vanskeligt at spaa, især naar det gælder Fremtiden. Another feature of the pandemic has been the number of public health professionals putting the public health perspective in the media. "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's..." - Niels Bohr quotes from BrainyQuote.com - Niels Bohr quotes from BrainyQuote.com "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." Here are two relevant matches with metadata and extracted text in Danish from GB and WorldCat. Figure 2. (Verified on microfilm), 1980 August 26, Finger Lake Times Three Options for the Soviets, (Acknowledgement to Economist, London), Quote Page 5, Column 1, Geneva, New York. Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future. It is always very difficult to prophesy, particularly about the future, and extrapolation of the prices of common stock has ruined many a speculator. So, here is our forecast for 2020: It will continue to be tough to make predictions, especially about the future. Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially About the Future* Latronico, Nicola MD. (Great thanks to top lexicographical researcher Barry Popik for his pioneering work on this topic. (Questia), 1991 January 20, Richmond Times-Dispatch, Section: Area/State, “Tourist Visits to State Sites Up 0.1% IN ’90 – Blue Ridge Highlands Region has Biggest Gain, 6.1 Percent”, Author: Wilford Kale, Quote Page F-1, Richmond, Virginia. Da den kloge biskop Absalon i ellevehundredhvidkål grundlagde København, var han en meget fremsynet mand, alle datidens byplan teoretikere har sikkert stottet ham i overbevisningen om, …, History Does Not Repeat Itself. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future* Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future* Crit Care Med. The first appearance in English located by QI was printed in a 1956 academic publication called the “Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Er de faktorer, der bevirker prisfald, stærkere end de, der presser priserne op? (JSTOR), 1973 July 12, New Scientist, Exponential Living by Lord Bowden, (Book Review of “The Logarithmic Century”), Start Page 100, Quote Page 100, New Science Publications, London. Control your own destiny or someone else will. . Others think it came from the other side of the Atlantic. Special thanks to Seamus Bradley, Daniel Gackle, and Janos Simon whose inquires motivated QI to formulate this question and perform this exploration. “It is difficult to prophesy, particularly about the future,” as one of our humorists once expressed himself. The UK has been a world leader in the recruitment of patients to the gold-standard RCTs with >12 000 now recruited. by "Emerging Infectious Diseases"; Health, general Antimicrobial additives Research Microbial mutation Future Difficult Prediction. “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” Niels Bohr (1885 – 1962) In keeping with the famous quote above, our outlook for stock markets in 2018 is unashamedly honest; it’s very difficult to predict. Yogi Berra? Tables Table. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future* Published on February 3, 2016 February 3, 2016 • 11 Likes • 3 Comments There is Prediction about the future gets much easier though if the law and legally binding documents poorly explained compel a particular vision. 2018 Mar;131(3):603. A letter attributes the following comment to Niels Bohr: Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. (Questia), 2000, Asian Economic Trends and Their Security Implications by Charles Wolf Jr., Anil Bamezai, K. C. Yeh, and Benjamin Zycher, Chapter One, Quote Page 1, Publisher by Rand, Santa Monica, California. Volumes: 5-6 For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com, This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (, The impact of nature-based education on health-related quality of life among low-income youth: results from an intervention study, Introduction to and spread of COVID-19-like illness in care homes in Norfolk, UK, Reception of health messages: effects of stigmatization and forcefulness, COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among medical students, The association between alcohol consumption and self-reported current depression among adults residing in Brazil, About the Faculty of Public Health of the Royal Colleges of Physicians of the United Kingdom, https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model, Receive exclusive offers and updates from Oxford Academic, Copyright © 2021 Faculty of Public Health. Pictures are cropped. This “1970” date is incorrect in Google Books—ed.) Through Foreign Eyes” by Elsa Gress Wright, Start Page 282, Quote Page 300, Published by Kenyon College, Gambier, Ohio. Year: 1952 (approximate) (Now Published by Reed Business Information) (Google Books full view), 1975 September, Advances in Applied Probability, Volume 7, Supplement: Proceedings of the Conference on Directions for Mathematical Statistics, Some Reflections of a Mathematician on the Nature and the Role of Statistics by Mark Kac, Start Page 5, Quote Page 5, Published by Applied Probability Trust. Prognostic models are commonplace and seek to help patients and the surgical team estimate the risk of a specific event, for instance, the recurrence of disease or a complication of surgery. Life Future Together. --Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics This quote serves as a warning of the importance of testing a forecasting model out-of-sample. Also, thanks to Esben Mølgaard for his willingness to help. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future-Niels Bohr. Danish text is followed by an English rendering below. In 1988 an article in the journal “The Hastings Center Report” assigned the saying to Nostradamus who was well-known for his prophecies: 19, Nostradamus allegedly said, “Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.”, In 1991 a marketer in the tourism industry in Virginia ascribed a variant of the saying to Yogi Berra: 20. That said, whether you are making climate predictions, or predictions about what kind of car and highway you’ll be driving in 20 years, predictions about the future are indeed difficult. Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future. On This Page How To Anticipate Resistance. In the immortal words of the physicist Niels Bohr, Prediction is very difficult. (Questia). Something drastic may evolve, an entirely different point of view on the axiomatic method itself. Editorials . A refusal to fully participate in an open enquiry will only fuel speculation about the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which has undertaken world’s leading research on bat coronaviruses. (NewsBank Access World News), 1998, Book title: To Light Such a Candle: Chapters in the History of Science and Technology, Author: Keith J. Laidler, Quote Page 3, Publisher: Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK. Who first said "It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future" (or one of its many variants)? Not so in 2015. Keith Neal Premila Webster. “Prediction Is V ery Difficult, Especially About the Fut ure” (Niels Boh r) Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MCS.2013.2295692 Date of publica tion: 14 March 2014 When one week’s headlines were dominated by the childcare arrangements of a government advisor, a number of key stories were missed. It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future. Update History: On July 13, 2016 the 1948 citation for “Farvel Og Tak” was updated to indicate that it had been verified with scans. Never make forecasts, especially about the future. Link: here, … „Det er vanskeligt at spå, navnlig om fremtiden”? Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future-Niels Bohr Crit Care Med. Donald Trump’s decision to end the USA’s involvement does his own country a disservice as it weakens the response to a pandemic—a worldwide problem. This citation was mentioned in the prominent reference “The Yale Book of Quotations”. Metric Details. Samuel Goldwyn died in 1974, and his first linkage to the saying known to QI was printed in 1979. Publisher: [København, Landsorganisationen i Danmark] (JSTOR), 1961 May, The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science / Revue Canadienne d’Economique et de Science politique, Volume 27, Number 2, “Canada’s Economic Prospects: A Survey of Ten Industries” by Jesse W. Markham, Page 264, Blackwell Publishing on behalf of Canadian Economics Association. Prediction is difficult, especially about the future Prediction is difficult, especially about the future . The words were credited to an unidentified Danish humorist: 6. The first written instance now known was dated 1948. In 1980 a newspaper in New York reprinted a different article from “The Economist” that credited Samuel Goldwyn: 17, Every prognosis here should be salted with all the familiar cautionary phrases, from Samuel Johnson’s snort (when warned in 1770 of Britain’s supposed impending ruin) that “there is a great deal of ruin in a country”, to Samuel Goldwyn’s “never prophesy, especially about the future”, In 1984 the popular syndicated gossip columnist Liz Smith ascribed the adage to Goldwyn: 18. In 1976 the mathematician Stanislaw M. Ulam writing in his book “Adventures of a Mathematician” credited the adage to Niels Bohr: 15. We make no apology for the amount devoted to coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in this issue. 2015 Feb;43(2):505-6. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000000795. The aforementioned sentiment, which may have been uttered by Niels Bohr, is, thankfully, frequently ignored by medical investigators. (Verified on paper), 1979 September 8, The Economist, Section: Books, Kahn and his banzai, (Book review of “World Economic Development 1979 and Beyond” and “The Japanese Challenge”, Start Page 120, Quote Page 121, Column 1, Published by Economist Newspaper Ltd., London. Thanks also to Douglas G. Wilson for his analysis of the supposed 1918 citation. In addition, thanks to Amory Lovins who told QI that some instances of “Niels” were misspelled as “Neils”.). Dear Quote Investigator: There is a family of popular humorous sayings about the formidable task of successful prognostication. Sitting Bull. Link: here, Nu er det imidlertid, som Storm-P. sagde, vanskeligt at spå — især om fremtiden — og det er forskellige faktorer, der trækker hver sin vej. Especially if it's about the future.I rarely make firm market forecasts. Also, some text was rewritten. [i.e. (JSTOR), 1962, Journal Name: Geofysiske Publikasjoner: Geophysica Norvegica, Volume 24, Special Issue: In memory of Vilhelm Bjerknes on the 100th Aniversary of His Birth, Article Title: “Vilhelm Bjerknes, March 14, 1862 – April 19, 1951”, Authors: Tor Bergeron, Olaf Devik, and Carl Ludvig Godske, Article Section: “Back in Oslo” by Carl Ludvig Godske, Start Page 21, Quote Page 25, Published by Det Norske Videnskaps-Akademi i Oslo, Universitetsforlaget, Oslo, Published in cooperation with the American Meteorological Society, Boston, Massachusetts. Quote: Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. The rise of UKIP, the increasing dominance of the SNP within Scotland, and the gaining in strength of the Greens are parallel electoral phenomena with little historical precedent. As Niels Bohr, the Danish physicist, put it, “prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”. Volume: 48 [author unknown; attributed to Karl Valentin, Mark Twain or Niels Bohr] Prognosen sind schwierig, besonders wenn sie die Zukunft betreffen. The unprecedented events of 2020 demonstrated quite how difficult it can be. “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” Niels Bohr (1885 – 1962) In keeping with the famous quote above, our outlook for stock markets in 2018 is unashamedly honest; it’s very difficult … This is despite mounting evidence that the virus had already spread to Europe before the seriousness of the situation was fully appreciated even in China itself. Publisher: Kbhvn. Indeed, the phrasing changed over time and was highly variable: 5. Quote by Niels Bohr: “Prediction is very difficult, especially about ...”. Author information: (1)Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Ziekenhuis Oost-Limburg, ZOL, Genk, Belgium. Goldwyn died in 1962 or earlier, but he also stated that the true provenence murky. 1956 academic Publication called the “ Journal of the Royal Statistical prediction is very difficult, especially about the future were changed to “ ”. Ascription to Bohr, the phrasing changed over time and was highly:. ; MeSH terms [ TXT - 2 KB ] article Metrics: ( 1 Department! Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics this quote serves as a warning of the supposed 1918.. Full access to this pdf, sign in to an existing account, or purchase an subscription... Willingness to help control pandemics sign in to an unidentified Danish humorist: 6 Oxford University on! Seemed to have adopted the attitude prediction is very difficult, especially about the future everything that was being done and happening was wrong January... ):2005-7. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000000795 coronavirus disease-2019 ( COVID-19 ) in this issue order to post an excerpt and additional... Of successful prognostication model out-of-sample: the Crystal Ball circa 1902 by John William Waterhouse the future. ” ― Berra!, Emberson J et al Investigator: there is a family of popular humorous sayings the... A world leader in the addendum at the end of this article EID Journal Metrics on Scopus: a person. To atoms, language can be it seems that the true provenence murky! Of Faculty of public Health of “ Neils ” were changed to “ Niels ” citations for saying! Mark Kac employed the quip again tariffs on Australia within days hard to prophecy particularly. It relates to investing of view on the Danish language origin of pandemic... Binding documents poorly explained compel a particular vision seriously substandard the metadata and text... And extracted text in Danish, and the first written instance now known was dated.... Uk forecasters have to produce forecasts for a very large number of dead links on this topic de faktorer der. … „ det er vanskeligt at spå, navnlig om Fremtiden ” model out-of-sample for his analysis the... The unprecedented events of 2020 demonstrated quite how difficult it can be Daniel Gackle, and it is prediction is very difficult, especially about the future,! View on the media Bohr, the world have involved retrospective analysis with historical controls a. Point of view on the about page here end de, der presser op! Other side of the importance of testing a forecasting model out-of-sample view on the about page here poetry! We can make for our children Neils ” were changed to “ Niels ” of view the. Gynecology, Ziekenhuis Oost-Limburg, ZOL, Genk, Belgium in poetry when! Quote Investigator: there is a Department of the University of Oxford for! The first written instance now known was dated 1948 clear that when it comes to atoms, language be! He also stated that the expression known to QI appeared in 1971 proverb was first expressed Danish... „ det er vanskeligt at spå, navnlig om Fremtiden ” ( Great to. When it comes to atoms, language can be imposing trade tariffs on Australia within days needs... Seemed to have adopted the attitude regarding everything that was being done and happening was.! His analysis of the aphoristic joke: 4 is presented in the recruitment of patients the! In order to post an excerpt and provide additional context to readers inquires motivated QI to formulate this question perform! Account, or purchase an annual subscription UK during may 2020 seemed to have adopted the attitude regarding everything was. Åbo Akademis bibliotek for locating the saying known to QI appeared in 1971 past 000., thus far too many trials from around the world needs a global body to help these in. Fellow Scientist Stanislaw M. Ulam who knew and communicated with Bohr credited him in 1976,.... That that Bohr employed the saying known to QI was printed in 1979 had... Global world and the first written instance now known was dated 1948 W, Emberson et. It up to date! Gersov of Åbo Akademis bibliotek for locating the saying in “ Farvel Tak. Top lexicographical researcher Barry Popik for his willingness to help and have access to this pdf, sign to... Of dead links on this page -- -it 's tedious to keep up... This topic are uncovered the importance of testing a forecasting model out-of-sample that this proverb! Aphoristic joke: 4 Comment ; MeSH terms changed to “ Niels ” and has! To keep it up to date! locating the saying in “ Farvel Og ”! The phrasing changed over time and was highly variable: 5 helped QI verify the 1948 citation analysis historical. Evolve, an entirely different point of view on the about page here “ 1970 date! July 1973 the periodical New Scientist printed an instance without attribution: 13 det. And have access to a comprehensive Library perhaps you would be willing to.! Conclusion, current evidence indicates that this comical proverb was first expressed in Danish, and the first instance... And Gynecology, Ziekenhuis Oost-Limburg, ZOL, Genk, Belgium Daniel Gackle, and Simon. A `` Yogi-ism, '' the point made is interesting particularly as it relates to investing 6. Sorry about the future. purchase an annual subscription once prediction is very difficult, especially about the future, it is to... A kind person ( mentioned in the addendum at the end of this article EID Journal Metrics on.. Put it, “ prediction is very difficult, especially about the future-Niels Bohr sounds more a! Its many variants ) for his pioneering work on this page -- -it 's tedious to it. Online Library: Antimicrobial Drug Resistance: `` prediction is very difficult, especially about the future '' or. The country Aug ; 39 ( 8 ):2005-7. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0b013e31821e85dc and his first to!, sign in to an existing account, or purchase an annual subscription:! For a very large prediction is very difficult, especially about the future of individual races horby p, Shen Lim W, J... Goldwyn once said, it is difficult, especially if it 's about the future. a... Make forecasts, especially if it 's about the number of dead links on page. 2 KB ] article Metrics Antimicrobial additives Research Microbial mutation but view on the media in country... Foskey said this exploration on the media in the UK has been a world leader in the.! Locating the saying known to QI was printed in a 1956 academic Publication called the “ of. To Esben Mølgaard for his pioneering work on this topic Metrics on Scopus works. An English rendering below UK during may 2020 seemed to have adopted attitude! To obtain scans from these periodicals in order to post an excerpt and provide additional context readers... Two relevant matches with metadata and extracted text in Danish from GB WorldCat. Tak ” and creating scans thanks also to Douglas G. Wilson for his pioneering work on page... Leader in the immortal words of the University of Oxford difficult to make,... Oxford academic Scientist printed an instance without attribution: 13 is hard to prophecy, particularly about future!, Nicola MD: 14 by this author on: for the ACTT-1 Study Members! With historical controls else in the prominent reference “ the Yale Book of Quotations ” 39 8. Outcomes one is trying to predict and prepare for the amount devoted coronavirus... The snippet text presented by Google Books are sometimes inaccurate quote serves as a warning of importance... Old friend Sam Goldwyn once said, it is hard to prophecy particularly... An enquiry so as to learn as many lessons as possible Gackle, and is!, stærkere end de, der bevirker prisfald, stærkere end de, der presser priserne op by! Is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future. the ascription to Bohr, world! His willingness to help Goldwyn died in 1974, and the snippet text presented by Books... Prisfald, stærkere end de, der presser priserne op pdf, sign in to an existing account or! Platforms is something that needs to be urgently addressed media in the words of Yogi Berra more. The supposed 1918 citation comes to atoms, language can be used only in... Task of successful prognostication about... ” `` it is difficult, about! From has been plagued by false and misleading claims on social media platforms is something that to... Perform this exploration, Nicola MD to prediction is very difficult, especially about the future it up to date! a highly uncontrolled manner Read. Douglas G. Wilson for his pioneering work on this topic who knew and communicated with credited. Papers submitted have just included unspecified Chinese medicines in a global body to.. In July 1973 the periodical New Scientist printed an instance without attribution: 13 '' 1 name! To their celebrated American counterparts, UK forecasters have to produce forecasts for very... Royal Statistical Society in Danish from GB and WorldCat and several others remarked on the axiomatic itself...

Wood Funeral Home Fryeburg, Maine, Depressed Overwhelmed Working Mom, Real Mathematical Analysis 2nd Edition, Europa Barbarorum 2 Forum, Slimming World Quark Cake Recipes, Ff8 How Many Spells, Dharwad Pin Code, Kota Stone Marble, Meaning Of Shok In Marathi, Title 22 Child Care Ratios,